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Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.8 corners in the match: Botafogo SP 6.2, Vila Nova 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 64% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 52%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Botafogo SP 2.4, Vila Nova 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Form
Botafogo SP: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Vila Nova: last five matches — L-W-D-L-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Botafogo SP — 16, Vila Nova — 1 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Botafogo SP at home and Vila Nova away, 2024–2026.
| Botafogo SP | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 53 |
| Win rate | 31% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | 11.3 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 64% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 68% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Botafogo SP won 3, 1 draws, Vila Nova won 5. Per match: 2.0 goals, 9.3 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 08.06.2026: Vila Nova 1:0 Botafogo SP
- 25.08.2025: Botafogo SP 2:0 Vila Nova
- 20.04.2025: Vila Nova 2:0 Botafogo SP
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
Our model expects 10.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 64%.
How many yellow cards in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.