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Braga vs Sporting CP: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Primeira Liga · 9 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Braga 4.9, Sporting CP 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Braga 2.4, Sporting CP 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Braga win 28%, draw 29%, Sporting CP win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Braga: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Sporting CP: last five matches — D-W-D-W-D.
- 12 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Braga — 6, Sporting CP — 3 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Braga at home and Sporting CP away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Braga | Sporting CP | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 37 |
| Win rate | 53% | 65% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 68% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 5.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 62% |
Head to head
56 meetings in our database: Braga won 17, 8 draws, Sporting CP won 31. Per match: 3.0 goals, 8.9 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 07.03.2026: Braga 2:2 Sporting CP
- 05.10.2025: Sporting CP 1:1 Braga
- 07.04.2025: Sporting CP 1:1 Braga
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Braga vs Sporting CP?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Braga vs Sporting CP?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.
Who is more likely to win Braga vs Sporting CP?
Market line without margin: Braga 28%, draw 29%, Sporting CP 43%.