Bugesera vs Al Hilal Omdurman: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 7 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Bugesera · Al Hilal Omdurman

Key facts

• Al Hilal Omdurman is the more likely winner in our model: 57%, draw 26%.
• Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Bugesera’s home matches and 50% of Al Hilal Omdurman’s away matches over three seasons.

Result

Our model: Bugesera win 17%, draw 26%, Al Hilal Omdurman win 57%. Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 40%.

Form

Bugesera: last five matches — L-W-L-W-W.

Al Hilal Omdurman: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.

• 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away

Table: Bugesera — 6, Al Hilal Omdurman — 11 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

Bugesera at home and Al Hilal Omdurman away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

2 meetings in our database: Bugesera won 0, 0 draws, Al Hilal Omdurman won 2. Per match: 3.0 goals.

• 25.03.2026: Bugesera 0:2 Al Hilal Omdurman
• 11.12.2025: Al Hilal Omdurman 3:1 Bugesera

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers