Bugesera vs Amagaju: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Bugesera · Amagaju

Key facts

• Our model makes Bugesera the favourite at 51%; a draw is 28%.
• 5 of the 8 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 42% of Bugesera home games and 35% of Amagaju away games.

Result

Our model: Bugesera win 51%, draw 28%, Amagaju win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 39%.

Form

Bugesera: last five matches — W-L-W-L-W.

• 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions

Amagaju: last five matches — D-W-D-L-L.

• 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 3 matches without a win · away

Table: Bugesera — 14, Amagaju — 9 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

Bugesera at home and Amagaju away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

8 meetings in our database: Bugesera won 2, 5 draws, Amagaju won 1. Per match: 1.1 goals.

• 01.03.2026: Bugesera 0:0 Amagaju
• 20.09.2025: Amagaju 0:0 Bugesera
• 01.03.2025: Amagaju 0:1 Bugesera

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers