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Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Bulgaria 4.8, Luxembourg 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Bulgaria 2.3, Luxembourg 2.7; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 43%.
Result
Market line without margin: Bulgaria win 41%, draw 31%, Luxembourg win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Bulgaria: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Luxembourg: last five matches — L-L-L-W-W.
- 9 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Bulgaria at home and Luxembourg away, 2024–2026.
| Bulgaria | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 12 |
| Win rate | 22% | 17% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 17% |
| Total corners per match | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 14% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 58% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Bulgaria won 2, 3 draws, Luxembourg won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals, 10.3 corners, 8.8 yellow cards.
- 15.11.2024: Luxembourg 0:1 Bulgaria
- 12.10.2024: Bulgaria 0:0 Luxembourg
- 20.11.2022: Luxembourg 0:0 Bulgaria
Referee
Sander van der Eijk: 190 matches in our database, 3.3 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 20% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Our model expects 8.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 40%.
How many yellow cards in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.
Who is more likely to win Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Market line without margin: Bulgaria 41%, draw 31%, Luxembourg 28%.