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Burgos vs Eldense: prediction and statistics
Spain · Segunda · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Burgos 4.6, Eldense 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Burgos 2.0, Eldense 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 75%.
Result
Market line without margin: Burgos win 50%, draw 28%, Eldense win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Burgos: last five matches — D-W-W-D-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Eldense: last five matches — D-L-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Burgos — 5, Eldense — 17 (of 22).
Team statistics for three seasons
Burgos at home and Eldense away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Burgos | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 24 |
| Win rate | 49% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 46% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Burgos won 1, 1 draws, Eldense won 3. Per match: 1.4 goals, 12.0 corners, 3.6 yellow cards.
- 29.03.2025: Eldense 0:0 Burgos
- 08.12.2024: Burgos 1:0 Eldense
- 10.05.2024: Burgos 1:2 Eldense
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Burgos vs Eldense?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Burgos vs Eldense?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 52%.
Who is more likely to win Burgos vs Eldense?
Market line without margin: Burgos 50%, draw 28%, Eldense 23%.