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Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and statistics
Wales · Premier League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Cardiff MET 1.7, Caernarfon Town 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 37%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 63%.
Result
Market line without margin: Cardiff MET win 30%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town win 46%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Cardiff MET: last five matches — D-W-L-W-D.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Caernarfon Town: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Cardiff MET — 10, Caernarfon Town — 3 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cardiff MET at home and Caernarfon Town away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Cardiff MET | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 38 |
| Win rate | 38% | 45% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 35% |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Cardiff MET won 6, 4 draws, Caernarfon Town won 15. Per match: 3.2 goals, 2.8 yellow cards.
- 13.12.2025: Cardiff MET 2:4 Caernarfon Town
- 28.09.2025: Caernarfon Town 0:3 Cardiff MET
- 09.08.2025: Cardiff MET 2:2 Caernarfon Town
Referee
A. D. Livesey: 35 matches in our database, 4.0 yellow cards per match (competition average 3.6); over 4.5 cards in 37% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town?
Market line without margin: Cardiff MET 30%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town 46%.