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Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Primeira Liga · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Casa Pia 5.2, Santa Clara 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Casa Pia 2.5, Santa Clara 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 74%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Casa Pia win 21%, draw 29%, Santa Clara win 50%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Casa Pia: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · at home
- 3 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Santa Clara: last five matches — D-L-W-D-W.
- 12 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Casa Pia — 17, Santa Clara — 4 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Casa Pia at home and Santa Clara away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Casa Pia | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 37 |
| Win rate | 27% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 62% | 54% |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Casa Pia won 2, 2 draws, Santa Clara won 3. Per match: 1.7 goals, 10.5 corners, 6.5 yellow cards.
- 18.04.2026: Casa Pia 0:0 Santa Clara
- 06.12.2025: Santa Clara 1:0 Casa Pia
- 01.02.2025: Santa Clara 2:1 Casa Pia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 57%.
Who is more likely to win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Market line without margin: Casa Pia 21%, draw 29%, Santa Clara 50%.