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Casertana vs Salernitana: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone C · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Casertana · Salernitana
Before kick-off
Serie C – Girone C, 20 November 2026: Casertana are at home to Salernitana. Casertana sit 8th in the 20-team table while Salernitana are 14th, so 6 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Casertana are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Salernitana are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Casertana against 2 for Salernitana.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Casertana have 20 wins, 15 draws and 10 defeats in 45 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Salernitana: 10 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats in 25 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 4 meetings — wins: Casertana 1, Salernitana 2; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 13 May 2026, finished Salernitana 1:1 Casertana. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
Casertana: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Salernitana: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Casertana — 8, Salernitana — 14 (of 20).
Home and away record
Casertana at home and Salernitana away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Casertana | Salernitana | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 25 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-15-10 | 10-6-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Casertana won 1, 1 draws, Salernitana won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 13.05.2026: Salernitana 1:1 Casertana
- 10.05.2026: Casertana 2:3 Salernitana
- 05.03.2026: Casertana 1:0 Salernitana
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Casertana’s home matches and 48% of Salernitana’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Casertana 2.0, Salernitana 2.3; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Casertana win 46%, draw 26%, Salernitana win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Casertana | Salernitana | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 36% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.