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Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional: prediction and statistics
Uruguay · Primera División · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards: Cerro Largo 2.9, Club Nacional 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 64% (typical match — 64%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 80%, typical match 80%.
Form
Cerro Largo: last five matches — D-D-D-D-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
Club Nacional: last five matches — D-W-L-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Cerro Largo — 11, Club Nacional — 5 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cerro Largo at home and Club Nacional away, 2024–2026.
| Cerro Largo | Club Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 35 | 35 |
| Win rate | 31% | 57% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 11.7 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 71% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Cerro Largo won 1, 4 draws, Club Nacional won 8. Per match: 2.5 goals, 11.0 corners, 9.0 yellow cards.
- 24.03.2026: Club Nacional 3:0 Cerro Largo
- 06.04.2025: Cerro Largo 0:4 Club Nacional
- 23.06.2024: Cerro Largo 0:4 Club Nacional
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional?
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 64%.