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CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: CF Montreal 5.7, FC Cincinnati 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: CF Montreal 1.8, FC Cincinnati 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: CF Montreal win 35%, draw 25%, FC Cincinnati win 40%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
CF Montreal: last five matches — D-D-L-W-L.
FC Cincinnati: last five matches — L-D-L-L-D.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: CF Montreal — 29, FC Cincinnati — 15 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
CF Montreal at home and FC Cincinnati away, 2024–2026.
| CF Montreal | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 49 |
| Win rate | 27% | 47% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 69% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 43% |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: CF Montreal won 4, 2 draws, FC Cincinnati won 8. Per match: 4.1 goals, 9.2 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 22.03.2026: FC Cincinnati 4:3 CF Montreal
- 18.10.2025: FC Cincinnati 3:0 CF Montreal
- 25.06.2025: CF Montreal 1:3 FC Cincinnati
Referee
Ismail Elfath: 214 matches in our database, 4.0 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.2); over 4.5 cards in 34% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 38%.
Who is more likely to win CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
Market line without margin: CF Montreal 35%, draw 25%, FC Cincinnati 40%.