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CF Pachuca vs Necaxa: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: CF Pachuca 5.5, Necaxa 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 61%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: CF Pachuca 2.1, Necaxa 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 67%, typical match 66%.
Result
Market line without margin: CF Pachuca win 56%, draw 24%, Necaxa win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
CF Pachuca: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Necaxa: last five matches — L-W-D-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: CF Pachuca — 11, Necaxa — 17 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
CF Pachuca at home and Necaxa away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| CF Pachuca | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 39 |
| Win rate | 45% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 69% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 69% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 39% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: CF Pachuca won 11, 7 draws, Necaxa won 4. Per match: 2.9 goals, 10.9 corners, 5.1 yellow cards.
- 04.03.2026: CF Pachuca 2:1 Necaxa
- 04.10.2025: Necaxa 0:1 CF Pachuca
- 12.04.2025: Necaxa 3:5 CF Pachuca
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 48%.
Who is more likely to win CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?
Market line without margin: CF Pachuca 56%, draw 24%, Necaxa 20%.