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Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 12 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Chapecoense-sc 5.6, Atletico Paranaense 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Chapecoense-sc 2.2, Atletico Paranaense 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Chapecoense-sc win 27%, draw 28%, Atletico Paranaense win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Chapecoense-sc: last five matches — L-D-D-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Atletico Paranaense: last five matches — L-W-W-L-D.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Chapecoense-sc — 20, Atletico Paranaense — 3 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Chapecoense-sc at home and Atletico Paranaense away, 2024–2026.
| Chapecoense-sc | Atletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 33 |
| Win rate | 15% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 64% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 49% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Chapecoense-sc won 2, 12 draws, Atletico Paranaense won 5. Per match: 2.2 goals, 9.6 corners, 4.4 yellow cards.
- 12.04.2026: Atletico Paranaense 2:0 Chapecoense-sc
- 17.09.2025: Chapecoense-sc 2:3 Atletico Paranaense
- 09.05.2025: Atletico Paranaense 1:1 Chapecoense-sc
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Market line without margin: Chapecoense-sc 27%, draw 28%, Atletico Paranaense 45%.