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Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Charlotte 5.3, Chicago Fire 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Charlotte 1.8, Chicago Fire 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 64%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Charlotte win 45%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Charlotte: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Chicago Fire: last five matches — D-L-D-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Charlotte — 8, Chicago Fire — 11 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Charlotte at home and Chicago Fire away, 2024–2026.
| Charlotte | Chicago Fire | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 48 |
| Win rate | 58% | 31% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 77% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 75% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 31% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Charlotte won 5, 0 draws, Chicago Fire won 4. Per match: 4.0 goals, 10.4 corners, 5.1 yellow cards.
- 02.08.2026: Chicago Fire 2:1 Charlotte
- 29.06.2025: Chicago Fire 3:2 Charlotte
- 17.05.2025: Charlotte 1:4 Chicago Fire
Referee
Christopher Penso: 1 matches in our database, 3.0 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.2); over 4.5 cards in 0% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Market line without margin: Charlotte 45%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 30%.