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Cheltenham vs Chesterfield: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Cheltenham 4.8, Chesterfield 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Cheltenham 1.9, Chesterfield 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 53%, typical match 51%.
Result
Market line without margin: Cheltenham win 31%, draw 26%, Chesterfield win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Cheltenham: last five matches — L-W-W-D-D.
- 10 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Chesterfield: last five matches — D-L-W-L-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Cheltenham — 5, Chesterfield — 8 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cheltenham at home and Chesterfield away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Cheltenham | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 49 | 51 |
| Win rate | 43% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 54% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Cheltenham won 3, 2 draws, Chesterfield won 5. Per match: 2.3 goals, 7.8 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 03.04.2026: Chesterfield 1:0 Cheltenham
- 09.08.2025: Cheltenham 0:2 Chesterfield
- 01.02.2025: Cheltenham 1:0 Chesterfield
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cheltenham vs Chesterfield?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Cheltenham vs Chesterfield?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Cheltenham vs Chesterfield?
Market line without margin: Cheltenham 31%, draw 26%, Chesterfield 43%.