Xpect
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Chicago Fire 5.4, New York City FC 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Chicago Fire 2.4, New York City FC 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 63%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Chicago Fire win 53%, draw 24%, New York City FC win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Chicago Fire: last five matches — W-W-W-D-L.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
New York City FC: last five matches — L-D-D-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Chicago Fire — 10, New York City FC — 17 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Chicago Fire at home and New York City FC away, 2024–2026.
| Chicago Fire | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 53 |
| Win rate | 40% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 65% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 53% |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Chicago Fire won 3, 8 draws, New York City FC won 14. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.8 corners, 3.8 yellow cards.
- 25.07.2026: New York City FC 3:1 Chicago Fire
- 14.09.2025: Chicago Fire 1:3 New York City FC
- 25.05.2025: New York City FC 3:1 Chicago Fire
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 44%.
Who is more likely to win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
Market line without margin: Chicago Fire 53%, draw 24%, New York City FC 24%.