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Chico vs Deportivo Pasto: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.6 corners in the match: Chico 4.8, Deportivo Pasto 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 36% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 8.5 — 51%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.9 yellow cards: Chico 2.6, Deportivo Pasto 3.3; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 71% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 71%, typical match 67%.
Result
Market line without margin: Chico win 36%, draw 32%, Deportivo Pasto win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Chico: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Deportivo Pasto: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Chico — 19, Deportivo Pasto — 10 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Chico at home and Deportivo Pasto away, 2024–2026.
| Chico | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 57 |
| Win rate | 37% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 83% |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Chico won 1, 6 draws, Deportivo Pasto won 8. Per match: 2.1 goals, 7.7 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 18.03.2026: Deportivo Pasto 2:0 Chico
- 05.09.2025: Deportivo Pasto 2:0 Chico
- 26.07.2025: Chico 2:2 Deportivo Pasto
Referee
Javier Alonso Villa Zapata: 17 matches in our database, 5.1 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.6); over 4.5 cards in 71% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Chico vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our model expects 8.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 36%.
How many yellow cards in Chico vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our model expects 5.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 71%.
Who is more likely to win Chico vs Deportivo Pasto?
Market line without margin: Chico 36%, draw 32%, Deportivo Pasto 31%.