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Colchester United vs Worcester City: prediction and statistics
England · Cup · 7 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Colchester United · Worcester City
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 33% of Colchester United home games and 50% of Worcester City away games.
- Our model makes Colchester United the favourite at 74%; a draw is 18%.
Result
Final score 1:0.
Result
Our model: Colchester United win 74%, draw 18%, Worcester City win 8%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 34%.
Form
Colchester United: last five matches — D-D-D-D-L.
- 12 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Worcester City: last five matches — L-D-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Colchester United at home and Worcester City away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Colchester United | Worcester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Win rate | 17% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Colchester United vs Worcester City?
Our model: Colchester United 74%, draw 18%, Worcester City 8%.