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Concepción vs Union La Calera: prediction and statistics
Chile · Primera División · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Concepción 5.3, Union La Calera 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Concepción 2.2, Union La Calera 3.0; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 76%, typical match 78%.
Result
Market line without margin: Concepción win 45%, draw 29%, Union La Calera win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Concepción: last five matches — W-D-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Union La Calera: last five matches — W-L-D-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Concepción — 8, Union La Calera — 14 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Concepción at home and Union La Calera away, 2024–2026.
| Concepción | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 41 |
| Win rate | 42% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 56% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Concepción won 0, 0 draws, Union La Calera won 1. Per match: 1.0 goals, 16.0 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 14.04.2026: Union La Calera 1:0 Concepción
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Concepción vs Union La Calera?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Concepción vs Union La Calera?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 60%.
Who is more likely to win Concepción vs Union La Calera?
Market line without margin: Concepción 45%, draw 29%, Union La Calera 27%.