Xpect
Crewe vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Crewe 5.2, Bristol Rovers 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Crewe 1.6, Bristol Rovers 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.
Result
Market line without margin: Crewe win 34%, draw 28%, Bristol Rovers win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Crewe: last five matches — W-D-D-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Bristol Rovers: last five matches — D-L-W-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Crewe — 9, Bristol Rovers — 3 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Crewe at home and Bristol Rovers away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Crewe | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 27 |
| Win rate | 44% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 33% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 34% | 59% |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Crewe won 4, 1 draws, Bristol Rovers won 2. Per match: 3.9 goals, 11.3 corners, 4.4 yellow cards.
- 07.03.2026: Bristol Rovers 2:1 Crewe
- 19.12.2025: Crewe 1:1 Bristol Rovers
- 12.12.2023: Crewe 2:4 Bristol Rovers
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?
Market line without margin: Crewe 34%, draw 28%, Bristol Rovers 38%.