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Crotone vs Cosenza: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone C · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie C – Girone C, 21 November 2026: Crotone are at home to Cosenza. They are neighbours in the table: Crotone are 20th and Cosenza 19th of 20. Both sides are in the bottom three.
Crotone are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Cosenza have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Crotone have 23 wins, 5 draws and 16 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The away record of Cosenza: 5 wins, 12 draws and 9 defeats in 26 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 9 meetings — wins: Crotone 2, Cosenza 4; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 16 August 2026, finished Crotone 0:2 Cosenza. On average these meetings produce 1.6 goals.
Form
Crotone: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Cosenza: last five matches — L-L-W-D-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Crotone — 20, Cosenza — 19 (of 20).
Home and away record
Crotone at home and Cosenza away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Crotone | Cosenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 26 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 23-5-16 | 5-12-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Crotone won 2, 3 draws, Cosenza won 4. Per match: 1.6 goals.
- 16.08.2026: Crotone 0:2 Cosenza
- 19.01.2026: Cosenza 0:2 Crotone
- 07.09.2025: Crotone 0:0 Cosenza
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 52% of Crotone’s home matches and 46% of Cosenza’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Crotone 2.0, Cosenza 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Crotone win 47%, draw 25%, Cosenza win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Crotone | Cosenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 52% | 19% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 42% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.