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Cruz Azul vs Toluca: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Cruz Azul 5.8, Toluca 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 55%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Cruz Azul 2.0, Toluca 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Cruz Azul win 36%, draw 26%, Toluca win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Cruz Azul: last five matches — W-L-L-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Toluca: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Cruz Azul — 4, Toluca — 1 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cruz Azul at home and Toluca away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Cruz Azul | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 46 |
| Win rate | 67% | 43% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 48% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Cruz Azul won 8, 8 draws, Toluca won 6. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.4 corners, 4.4 yellow cards.
- 07.02.2026: Toluca 1:1 Cruz Azul
- 24.08.2025: Cruz Azul 1:0 Toluca
- 20.04.2025: Toluca 2:2 Cruz Azul
Referee
Katia García: 33 matches in our database, 4.9 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.4); over 4.5 cards in 47% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 40%.
Who is more likely to win Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Market line without margin: Cruz Azul 36%, draw 26%, Toluca 37%.