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Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 8 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Cruzeiro 5.5, Sao Paulo 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Cruzeiro 2.3, Sao Paulo 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 72%.
Result
Market line without margin: Cruzeiro win 50%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Cruzeiro: last five matches — W-D-W-D-W.
- 11 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Sao Paulo: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 14 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
Table: Cruzeiro — 6, Sao Paulo — 11 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cruzeiro at home and Sao Paulo away, 2024–2026.
| Cruzeiro | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 52 |
| Win rate | 58% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 54% |
Head to head
29 meetings in our database: Cruzeiro won 7, 6 draws, Sao Paulo won 16. Per match: 2.3 goals, 9.1 corners, 4.2 yellow cards.
- 04.04.2026: Sao Paulo 4:1 Cruzeiro
- 31.08.2025: Cruzeiro 1:0 Sao Paulo
- 13.04.2025: Sao Paulo 1:1 Cruzeiro
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 52%.
Who is more likely to win Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
Market line without margin: Cruzeiro 50%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 22%.