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Czechia vs Croatia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Czechia 5.3, Croatia 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Czechia 1.6, Croatia 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Czechia win 29%, draw 27%, Croatia win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Czechia: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 21 matches unbeaten · at home
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Croatia: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Czechia at home and Croatia away, 2024–2026.
| Czechia | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 13 |
| Win rate | 75% | 46% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 11.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 8% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Czechia won 0, 3 draws, Croatia won 1. Per match: 3.0 goals, 9.5 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 09.10.2025: Czechia 0:0 Croatia
- 09.06.2025: Croatia 5:1 Czechia
- 18.06.2021: Croatia 1:1 Czechia
Referee
Simone Sozza: 167 matches in our database, 4.5 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 49% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Czechia vs Croatia?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Czechia vs Croatia?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Czechia vs Croatia?
Market line without margin: Czechia 29%, draw 27%, Croatia 44%.