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De Graafschap vs MVV: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: De Graafschap · MVV
Before kick-off
De Graafschap host MVV in Eerste Divisie on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: MVV are 8th of 20, De Graafschap 15th — a gap of 7 places.
De Graafschap have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. MVV are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
The home record of De Graafschap (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 26 wins, 7 draws and 12 defeats in 45 matches, 2.1 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. MVV find it hard on the road: 7 wins, 13 draws and 25 defeats in 45 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
The 18 previous meetings are fairly balanced — De Graafschap 10, MVV 4, draws 4. Last time out (27 February 2026) it ended MVV 3:3 De Graafschap. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
De Graafschap: last five matches — L-L-W-W-D.
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
MVV: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
- 10 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: De Graafschap — 15, MVV — 8 (of 20).
Home and away record
De Graafschap at home and MVV away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| De Graafschap | MVV | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 26-7-12 | 7-13-25 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: De Graafschap won 10, 4 draws, MVV won 4. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 27.02.2026: MVV 3:3 De Graafschap
- 22.08.2025: De Graafschap 0:1 MVV
- 22.03.2025: De Graafschap 0:0 MVV
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- De Graafschap should win the corner count: 5.7 expected against 4.7 for MVV.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 69% of De Graafschap home games and 53% of MVV away games.
- Our model makes De Graafschap the favourite at 59%; a draw is 20%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: De Graafschap 5.7, MVV 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: De Graafschap 1.3, MVV 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 22% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: De Graafschap win 59%, draw 20%, MVV win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 64%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| De Graafschap | MVV | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 58% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 10.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 69% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 22% | 16% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.