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Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Defensa Y Justicia 5.0, San Lorenzo 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Defensa Y Justicia 2.1, San Lorenzo 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 50%, typical match 43%.
Result
Market line without margin: Defensa Y Justicia win 42%, draw 31%, San Lorenzo win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 41%.
Form
Defensa Y Justicia: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
San Lorenzo: last five matches — L-L-D-L-D.
- 12 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Defensa Y Justicia — 15, San Lorenzo — 19 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Defensa Y Justicia at home and San Lorenzo away, 2024–2026.
| Defensa Y Justicia | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 46 |
| Win rate | 40% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 17% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 8.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36% | 33% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 70% |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Defensa Y Justicia won 7, 3 draws, San Lorenzo won 5. Per match: 2.5 goals, 10.4 corners, 3.9 yellow cards.
- 16.03.2026: San Lorenzo 2:5 Defensa Y Justicia
- 22.09.2024: Defensa Y Justicia 0:0 San Lorenzo
- 07.04.2024: San Lorenzo 0:2 Defensa Y Justicia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
Our model expects 8.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 40%.
How many yellow cards in Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
Market line without margin: Defensa Y Justicia 42%, draw 31%, San Lorenzo 27%.