Xpect
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio: prediction and statistics
Uruguay · Primera División · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Defensor Sporting 2.5, Danubio 2.9; typical match of the competition — 5.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 62% (typical match — 64%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 78%, typical match 80%.
Result
Market line without margin: Defensor Sporting win 41%, draw 31%, Danubio win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Defensor Sporting: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
Danubio: last five matches — L-D-D-L-D.
- 16 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Defensor Sporting — 12, Danubio — 15 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Defensor Sporting at home and Danubio away, 2024–2026.
| Defensor Sporting | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 39 |
| Win rate | 47% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 75% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 71% | 56% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Defensor Sporting won 8, 7 draws, Danubio won 4. Per match: 2.0 goals, 13.0 corners, 5.2 yellow cards.
- 26.03.2026: Danubio 0:0 Defensor Sporting
- 27.03.2025: Danubio 1:1 Defensor Sporting
- 30.03.2024: Defensor Sporting 1:0 Danubio
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 62%.
Who is more likely to win Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
Market line without margin: Defensor Sporting 41%, draw 31%, Danubio 28%.