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Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Primera Nacional · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Defensores De Belgrano 2.1, Ferro Carril Oeste 3.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 60%, typical match 54%.
Result
Market line without margin: Defensores De Belgrano win 33%, draw 35%, Ferro Carril Oeste win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 27%, both teams to score — 36%.
Form
Defensores De Belgrano: last five matches — D-L-W-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Ferro Carril Oeste: last five matches — W-L-W-D-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Defensores De Belgrano — 22, Ferro Carril Oeste — 1 (of 36).
Team statistics for three seasons
Defensores De Belgrano at home and Ferro Carril Oeste away, 2024–2026.
| Defensores De Belgrano | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 51 |
| Win rate | 33% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 73% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Defensores De Belgrano won 1, 2 draws, Ferro Carril Oeste won 2. Per match: 2.6 goals, 4.2 yellow cards.
- 11.05.2026: Ferro Carril Oeste 2:1 Defensores De Belgrano
- 26.04.2022: Defensores De Belgrano 2:2 Ferro Carril Oeste
- 31.10.2021: Defensores De Belgrano 0:2 Ferro Carril Oeste
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 60%.
Who is more likely to win Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Market line without margin: Defensores De Belgrano 33%, draw 35%, Ferro Carril Oeste 31%.