Xpect
Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 4 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.4 corners in the match: Deportivo Pasto 4.7, Fortaleza FC 3.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 33% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 8.5 — 54%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Deportivo Pasto 2.7, Fortaleza FC 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 79%, typical match 82%.
Form
Deportivo Pasto: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Fortaleza FC: last five matches — D-L-D-D-D.
- 17 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Deportivo Pasto — 11, Fortaleza FC — 15 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Deportivo Pasto at home and Fortaleza FC away, 2024–2026.
| Deportivo Pasto | Fortaleza FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 58 | 56 |
| Win rate | 48% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 8.1 | 8.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 61% |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Deportivo Pasto won 5, 1 draws, Fortaleza FC won 1. Per match: 1.3 goals, 9.9 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 25.03.2026: Fortaleza FC 1:2 Deportivo Pasto
- 24.10.2025: Fortaleza FC 2:0 Deportivo Pasto
- 04.05.2025: Deportivo Pasto 1:0 Fortaleza FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC?
Our model expects 8.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 33%.
How many yellow cards in Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC?
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 63%.