Xpect
Dijon vs Metz: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 2 · 12 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Dijon 5.3, Metz 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Dijon 1.6, Metz 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 55%, typical match 47%.
Result
Market line without margin: Dijon win 34%, draw 28%, Metz win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Dijon: last five matches — W-L-L-W-D.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Metz: last five matches — D-D-D-D-L.
- 13 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Dijon — 9, Metz — 5 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Dijon at home and Metz away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Dijon | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 20 |
| Win rate | 33% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 25% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Dijon won 5, 6 draws, Metz won 6. Per match: 2.8 goals, 9.7 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 18.02.2023: Dijon 0:0 Metz
- 27.08.2022: Metz 1:2 Dijon
- 02.05.2021: Dijon 1:5 Metz
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Dijon vs Metz?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Dijon vs Metz?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 26%.
Who is more likely to win Dijon vs Metz?
Market line without margin: Dijon 34%, draw 28%, Metz 38%.