Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra: prediction and statistics

Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 5 November 2026 · kick-off 13:45 UTC

Team stats: Diyala · Al Minaa Basra

Key facts

• Our model sees an open game: Diyala 37%, draw 28%, Al Minaa Basra 34%.
• 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 40% of Diyala home games and 28% of Al Minaa Basra away games.

Result

Our model: Diyala win 37%, draw 28%, Al Minaa Basra win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.

Form

Diyala: last five matches — W-D-L-W-W.

• 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions

Al Minaa Basra: last five matches — D-L-L-L-D.

• 8 matches without a win · away

Table: Diyala — 13, Al Minaa Basra — 9 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Diyala at home and Al Minaa Basra away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Diyala won 0, 3 draws, Al Minaa Basra won 1. Per match: 1.8 goals.

• 18.03.2026: Al Minaa Basra 1:1 Diyala
• 26.10.2025: Diyala 0:0 Al Minaa Basra
• 02.07.2025: Al Minaa Basra 3:0 Diyala

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers