Xpect
Dordrecht vs Almere City FC: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Dordrecht 5.3, Almere City FC 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Dordrecht 1.5, Almere City FC 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 75%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Dordrecht win 30%, draw 23%, Almere City FC win 47%. Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Dordrecht: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Almere City FC: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 wins in a row · away
Table: Dordrecht — 19, Almere City FC — 2 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Dordrecht at home and Almere City FC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Dordrecht | Almere City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 26 |
| Win rate | 46% | 46% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 73% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 73% |
| Total corners per match | 11.4 | 10.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 76% | 65% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 2.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 8% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Dordrecht won 2, 5 draws, Almere City FC won 10. Per match: 3.2 goals, 12.0 corners, 2.7 yellow cards.
- 17.04.2026: Almere City FC 4:1 Dordrecht
- 03.11.2025: Dordrecht 0:1 Almere City FC
- 03.03.2023: Dordrecht 0:1 Almere City FC
Referee
Rick Sturm: 44 matches in our database, 3.1 yellow cards per match (competition average 3.5); over 4.5 cards in 16% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 25%.
Who is more likely to win Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Market line without margin: Dordrecht 30%, draw 23%, Almere City FC 47%.