Downtown vs Wologizi: prediction and statistics

Liberia · LFA First Division · 4 November 2026 · kick-off 16:00 UTC

Team stats: Downtown · Wologizi

Key facts

• No clear favourite in our model: 40% – 25% – 35%.
• Over 2.5 goals happened in 62% of Downtown’s home matches and 71% of Wologizi’s away matches over three seasons.

Result

Our model: Downtown win 40%, draw 25%, Wologizi win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.

Form

Downtown: last five matches — D-L-W-W-W.

• 3 wins in a row · at home
• 3 matches unbeaten · at home

Wologizi: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.

• 3 matches without a win · away
• 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Table: Downtown — 12, Wologizi — 8 (of 15).

Team statistics for three seasons

Downtown at home and Wologizi away, 2023–2025.

Head to head

2 meetings in our database: Downtown won 0, 1 draws, Wologizi won 1. Per match: 4.5 goals.

• 16.03.2026: Downtown 1:2 Wologizi
• 27.11.2025: Wologizi 3:3 Downtown

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers