Xpect
Elche vs Celta Vigo: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Elche 5.0, Celta Vigo 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Elche 2.1, Celta Vigo 2.1; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 44%.
Result
Market line without margin: Elche win 32%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Elche: last five matches — D-D-L-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Celta Vigo: last five matches — D-D-D-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Elche — 18, Celta Vigo — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Elche at home and Celta Vigo away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Elche | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 22 | 41 |
| Win rate | 41% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 66% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36% | 24% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 49% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Elche won 4, 2 draws, Celta Vigo won 6. Per match: 1.8 goals, 10.0 corners, 5.2 yellow cards.
- 03.05.2026: Celta Vigo 3:1 Elche
- 28.09.2025: Elche 2:1 Celta Vigo
- 26.04.2023: Celta Vigo 1:0 Elche
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Our model expects 8.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 40%.
How many yellow cards in Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Market line without margin: Elche 32%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 39%.