Xpect
England vs Spain: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: England 5.0, Spain 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 56%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: England 1.9, Spain 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: England win 31%, draw 28%, Spain win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
England: last five matches — W-D-L-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Spain: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 38 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 7 wins in a row · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
England at home and Spain away, 2024–2026.
| England | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 17 | 9 |
| Win rate | 59% | 67% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 89% |
| Both teams score | 24% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 63% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 13% | 50% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: England won 1, 0 draws, Spain won 2. Per match: 3.7 goals, 9.7 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 14.07.2024: Spain 2:1 England
- 15.10.2018: Spain 2:3 England
- 08.09.2018: England 1:2 Spain
Referee
Davide Massa: 310 matches in our database, 4.7 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 51% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in England vs Spain?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in England vs Spain?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win England vs Spain?
Market line without margin: England 31%, draw 28%, Spain 41%.