Xpect
Envigado vs Orsomarso: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera B · 1 October 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards: Envigado 2.7, Orsomarso 3.1; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 68% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 68%, typical match 59%.
Form
Envigado: last five matches — W-D-W-L-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Orsomarso: last five matches — D-L-D-D-D.
- 10 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 9 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Envigado — 3, Orsomarso — 12 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Envigado at home and Orsomarso away, 2024–2026.
| Envigado | Orsomarso | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 50 |
| Win rate | 43% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 22% |
| Both teams score | 36% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.9 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 71% | 64% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Envigado won 1, 0 draws, Orsomarso won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals, 6.0 yellow cards.
- 01.03.2026: Orsomarso 0:1 Envigado
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Envigado vs Orsomarso?
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 68%.