Erbil vs Gharraf: prediction and statistics

Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off 13:30 UTC

Team stats: Erbil · Gharraf

Key facts

• Erbil is the more likely winner in our model: 65%, draw 22%.
• Over 2.5 goals happened in 42% of Erbil’s home matches and 46% of Gharraf’s away matches over three seasons.

Result

Our model: Erbil win 65%, draw 22%, Gharraf win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 40%.

Form

Erbil: last five matches — W-L-L-D-W.

Gharraf: last five matches — D-L-L-W-W.

• 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Table: Erbil — 7, Gharraf — 14 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Erbil at home and Gharraf away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

2 meetings in our database: Erbil won 1, 1 draws, Gharraf won 0. Per match: 1.5 goals.

• 05.04.2026: Gharraf 0:0 Erbil
• 22.11.2025: Erbil 2:1 Gharraf

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers