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Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Esenler Erokspor · Mardin 1969
Result
Our model: Esenler Erokspor win 46%, draw 28%, Mardin 1969 win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
Esenler Erokspor: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Mardin 1969: last five matches — D-W-D-L-W.
- 8 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Esenler Erokspor — 16, Mardin 1969 — 6 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Esenler Erokspor at home and Mardin 1969 away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Esenler Erokspor | Mardin 1969 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 5 |
| Win rate | 40% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 65% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 20% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 60% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Esenler Erokspor won 1, 1 draws, Mardin 1969 won 0. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 26.02.2022: Esenler Erokspor 3:0 Mardin 1969
- 13.10.2021: Mardin 1969 1:1 Esenler Erokspor
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
Our model: Esenler Erokspor 46%, draw 28%, Mardin 1969 26%.