Xpect
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo: prediction and statistics
South America · Copa Libertadores · 16 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Estudiantes L.P. 5.9, Flamengo 3.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Estudiantes L.P. 2.5, Flamengo 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 75%.
Result
Our model: Estudiantes L.P. win 24%, draw 27%, Flamengo win 49%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 45%.
Form
Estudiantes L.P.: last five matches — D-D-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Flamengo: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Estudiantes L.P. at home and Flamengo away, 2024–2026.
| Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 16 |
| Win rate | 46% | 31% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 6% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 31% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 69% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 31% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Estudiantes L.P. won 1, 1 draws, Flamengo won 2. Per match: 1.8 goals, 9.5 corners, 5.8 yellow cards.
- 21.05.2026: Flamengo 1:0 Estudiantes L.P.
- 30.04.2026: Estudiantes L.P. 1:1 Flamengo
- 26.09.2025: Estudiantes L.P. 1:0 Flamengo
Referee
J. Benitez: 20 matches in our database, 4.0 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.8); over 4.5 cards in 30% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
Our model expects 8.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 40%.
How many yellow cards in Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.
Who is more likely to win Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
Our model: Estudiantes L.P. 24%, draw 27%, Flamengo 49%.