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Etincelles vs Kiyovu Sports: prediction and statistics
Rwanda · National Soccer League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Etincelles · Kiyovu Sports
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 25% of Etincelles’s home matches and 32% of Kiyovu Sports’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Kiyovu Sports: 11 wins in 15 meetings with Etincelles.
- No clear favourite in our model: 28% – 32% – 41%.
Result
Final score 0:1.
Result
Our model: Etincelles win 28%, draw 32%, Kiyovu Sports win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 29%, both teams to score — 37%.
Form
Etincelles: last five matches — W-D-W-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Kiyovu Sports: last five matches — W-D-D-L-D.
- 12 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Etincelles — 13, Kiyovu Sports — 10 (of 19).
Team statistics for three seasons
Etincelles at home and Kiyovu Sports away, 2024–2026.
| Etincelles | Kiyovu Sports | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 34 |
| Win rate | 25% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 31% | 24% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Etincelles won 1, 3 draws, Kiyovu Sports won 11. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 26.04.2026: Etincelles 0:0 Kiyovu Sports
- 05.12.2025: Kiyovu Sports 4:1 Etincelles
- 06.04.2025: Etincelles 0:2 Kiyovu Sports
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Etincelles vs Kiyovu Sports?
Our model: Etincelles 28%, draw 32%, Kiyovu Sports 41%.