Etoile de l'Est vs Musanze: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Etoile de l'Est · Musanze

Key facts

• Musanze has won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Etoile de l'Est.
• Our model sees an open game: Etoile de l'Est 29%, draw 31%, Musanze 40%.

Result

Our model: Etoile de l'Est win 29%, draw 31%, Musanze win 40%. Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 39%.

Form

Etoile de l'Est: last five matches — L-D-L-D-D.

• 7 matches without a win · all competitions
• 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
• 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Musanze: last five matches — D-L-L-L-W.

Table: Etoile de l'Est — 18, Musanze — 5 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

Etoile de l'Est at home and Musanze away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Etoile de l'Est won 0, 1 draws, Musanze won 3. Per match: 3.0 goals.

• 13.01.2024: Musanze 0:0 Etoile de l'Est
• 20.08.2023: Etoile de l'Est 1:4 Musanze
• 21.02.2022: Musanze 2:0 Etoile de l'Est

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers