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FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade: prediction and statistics
Europe · Conference League · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: FC Lugano 4.8, Red Star Belgrade 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: FC Lugano 2.1, Red Star Belgrade 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 56%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: FC Lugano win 34%, draw 28%, Red Star Belgrade win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
FC Lugano: last five matches — W-W-D-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Red Star Belgrade: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 42%.
How many yellow cards in FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?
Market line without margin: FC Lugano 34%, draw 28%, Red Star Belgrade 38%.