Xpect
FC Porto vs Paredes: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Porto · Paredes
Before kick-off
FC Porto host Paredes in Taça de Portugal on 20 November 2026.
FC Porto arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Few sides are in better shape than Paredes right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 12 and 13.
Home advantage matters here: FC Porto have 5 wins and 1 draw in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.3 per game. On the road Paredes are a dangerous side — 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 6 away matches, 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
FC Porto: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Paredes: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Home and away record
FC Porto at home and Paredes away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Porto | Paredes | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-1-0 | 4-1-1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.3 | 1.5 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 67% of FC Porto home games and 67% of Paredes away games.
- Our model makes FC Porto the favourite at 86%; a draw is 12%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: FC Porto 2.3, Paredes 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 73%, typical match 75%.
Result
Our model: FC Porto win 86%, draw 12%, Paredes win 3%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 20%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Porto | Paredes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 83% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 40% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.