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Firpo vs Alianza: prediction and statistics
El Salvador · Primera División · 5 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 32% of Firpo home games and 41% of Alianza away games.
- Our model makes Firpo the favourite at 55%; a draw is 25%.
Result
Final score 2:0.
Result
Our model: Firpo win 55%, draw 25%, Alianza win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Firpo: last five matches — D-W-W-D-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Alianza: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Firpo — 1, Alianza — 7 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Firpo at home and Alianza away, 2024–2026.
| Firpo | Alianza | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 59 | 58 |
| Win rate | 58% | 43% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 2% | 2% |
Head to head
54 meetings in our database: Firpo won 6, 18 draws, Alianza won 30. Per match: 3.0 goals, 0.2 yellow cards.
- 04.10.2026: Alianza 2:2 Firpo
- 22.03.2026: Firpo 2:1 Alianza
- 25.01.2026: Alianza 2:3 Firpo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Firpo vs Alianza?
Our model: Firpo 55%, draw 25%, Alianza 20%.