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Flamengo vs Fluminense: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Flamengo 5.8, Fluminense 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Flamengo 2.1, Fluminense 2.7; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 72%.
Result
Market line without margin: Flamengo win 68%, draw 21%, Fluminense win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Flamengo: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Fluminense: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Flamengo — 1, Fluminense — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Flamengo at home and Fluminense away, 2024–2026.
| Flamengo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 52 |
| Win rate | 67% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 64% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 52% |
Head to head
57 meetings in our database: Flamengo won 23, 15 draws, Fluminense won 19. Per match: 2.3 goals, 10.9 corners, 6.2 yellow cards.
- 12.04.2026: Fluminense 1:2 Flamengo
- 08.03.2026: Fluminense 0:0 Flamengo
- 25.01.2026: Fluminense 2:1 Flamengo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.
Who is more likely to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Market line without margin: Flamengo 68%, draw 21%, Fluminense 11%.