Xpect
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Fortaleza EC 5.5, Nautico Recife 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Fortaleza EC 2.3, Nautico Recife 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 72%.
Form
Fortaleza EC: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 10 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Nautico Recife: last five matches — D-D-D-L-L.
- 10 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Fortaleza EC — 2, Nautico Recife — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Fortaleza EC at home and Nautico Recife away, 2024–2026.
| Fortaleza EC | Nautico Recife | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 15 |
| Win rate | 64% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 47% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Fortaleza EC won 4, 1 draws, Nautico Recife won 0. Per match: 2.6 goals, 14.0 corners, 7.0 yellow cards.
- 09.06.2026: Nautico Recife 0:1 Fortaleza EC
- 26.02.2023: Fortaleza EC 2:1 Nautico Recife
- 26.03.2022: Fortaleza EC 2:0 Nautico Recife
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.