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Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: Fortaleza FC 4.9, Deportes Tolima 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 37% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 8.5 — 50%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Fortaleza FC 2.2, Deportes Tolima 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 82%.
Form
Fortaleza FC: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Deportes Tolima: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Fortaleza FC — 15, Deportes Tolima — 3 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Fortaleza FC at home and Deportes Tolima away, 2024–2026.
| Fortaleza FC | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 57 | 68 |
| Win rate | 42% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 55% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Fortaleza FC won 2, 4 draws, Deportes Tolima won 3. Per match: 1.8 goals, 9.0 corners, 4.4 yellow cards.
- 19.03.2026: Deportes Tolima 2:0 Fortaleza FC
- 08.12.2025: Deportes Tolima 1:0 Fortaleza FC
- 18.11.2025: Fortaleza FC 0:1 Deportes Tolima
Referee
Luis Matorel Bolivar: 116 matches in our database, 5.7 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.6); over 4.5 cards in 71% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima?
Our model expects 8.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 37%.
How many yellow cards in Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 52%.