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Freeport vs Heaven Eleven: prediction and statistics
Liberia · LFA First Division · 4 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Freeport · Heaven Eleven
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 69% of Freeport’s home matches and 58% of Heaven Eleven’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Heaven Eleven: 6 wins in 10 meetings with Freeport.
Result
Final score 2:1.
Result
Our model: Freeport win 28%, draw 23%, Heaven Eleven win 49%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 62%.
Form
Freeport: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 9 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Heaven Eleven: last five matches — D-D-W-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Freeport — 14, Heaven Eleven — 9 (of 15).
Team statistics for three seasons
Freeport at home and Heaven Eleven away, 2023–2025.
| Freeport | Heaven Eleven | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 38 |
| Win rate | 31% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 77% | 66% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Freeport won 2, 2 draws, Heaven Eleven won 6. Per match: 3.8 goals.
- 01.04.2026: Freeport 1:2 Heaven Eleven
- 29.10.2025: Heaven Eleven 4:2 Freeport
- 10.04.2025: Freeport 3:2 Heaven Eleven
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Freeport vs Heaven Eleven?
Our model: Freeport 28%, draw 23%, Heaven Eleven 49%.