Xpect
Gagra vs Dila: prediction and statistics
Georgia · Erovnuli Liga · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Erovnuli Liga, 20 November 2026: Gagra are at home to Dila. Gagra go into the match 9th of 10 in the table, Dila are 6th. Gagra are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Gagra: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Dila recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games.
Gagra have not made their ground a fortress: 14 wins, 17 draws and 22 defeats in 53 home matches (2024–2026), 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Dila travel well: 29 wins, 5 draws and 18 defeats in 52 away matches, with 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
This fixture often ends level: 8 of the 20 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 5 September 2026, finished Dila 1:0 Gagra. On average these meetings produce 1.4 goals.
Form
Gagra: last five matches — D-D-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Dila: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 6 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: Gagra — 9, Dila — 6 (of 10).
Home and away record
Gagra at home and Dila away, 2024–2026.
| Gagra | Dila | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 52 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-17-22 | 29-5-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Gagra won 2, 8 draws, Dila won 10. Per match: 1.4 goals.
- 05.09.2026: Dila 1:0 Gagra
- 24.05.2026: Gagra 2:0 Dila
- 07.04.2026: Dila 1:1 Gagra
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 45% of Gagra’s home matches and 52% of Dila’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 8 of 20 meetings.
- No clear favourite in our model: 37% – 26% – 38%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Gagra 4.7, Dila 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Gagra 1.9, Dila 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Gagra win 37%, draw 26%, Dila win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Gagra | Dila | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 26% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 7.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 20% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 52% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 7.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.