Xpect
Georgia vs Northern Ireland: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Georgia 4.7, Northern Ireland 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Georgia 1.7, Northern Ireland 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Georgia win 52%, draw 27%, Northern Ireland win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Georgia: last five matches — W-W-L-D-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Northern Ireland: last five matches — L-L-L-D-D.
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Georgia at home and Northern Ireland away, 2024–2026.
| Georgia | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| Win rate | 43% | 14% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 21% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 39% |
Referee
Orel Grinfeld: 59 matches in our database, 3.9 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 44% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 41%.
How many yellow cards in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Market line without margin: Georgia 52%, draw 27%, Northern Ireland 21%.